RESOURCE NATIONALISM AND CONTRACT RENEGOTIATION RISKS IN AFRICAN PETROLEUM MARKETS

Summary

A resurgent wave of resource nationalism across African petroleum and extractive markets poses elevated risks to international oil companies (IOCs), national oil companies (NOCs), and energy investors. This note assesses the current threat landscape, identifies high-risk jurisdictions, and evaluates contract renegotiation vulnerabilities. The current cycle differs from historical waves: it is more systematic, legally structured, and geopolitically motivated, with military juntas in the Sahel and cash-strapped governments across the continent leveraging regulatory, fiscal, and equity tools to capture greater rent from petroleum assets.