Mozambique LNG Flagship Project

Mozambique LNG Flagship Project 

Executive Summary

The Mozambique LNG project operated by TotalEnergies was announced for both onshore and offshore. This marked the culmination of a recovery process that began when the Mozambique LNG consortium voted to lift the Force Majeure originally declared in 2021 on November 7, 2025. A first offshore installation vessel has already been deployed to begin installing offshore infrastructure and the 2029 first-cargo target remains the operative delivery milestone. The Mozambique LNG restart is catalyzing activity across the Rovuma Basin. It is expected that  the ExxonMobil-led Rovuma LNG project will begin construction within 12–18 months. Additionally, Eni's Coral Norte LNG project (3.4 mtpa) reached FID in 2025 and is on track to begin operations in 2028.

Project Fundamentals

Key Developments

Construction Mobilization 

Construction activities have restarted both offshore and onshore at the Afungi site, with over 4,000 workers currently mobilized, of which over 3,000 are Mozambican nationals.  

Revised Budget & Schedule

The revised budget incorporates $4.5 billion in additional costs linked to the four-year suspension, as well as a ten-year timeline extension.The government audit over higher project costs will resume in parallel to construction activity.The 2029 first-cargo target remains the operative delivery milestone.

Financing Secured

A re-approved loan from the US Export-Import Bank, mobilizing up to $4.7 billion for the project, was confirmed in March 2025, providing the critical anchor financing needed to restart.

Security Stabilization

Security has improved significantly in Cabo Delgado, particularly with the deployment of Rwandan soldiers around the Afungi construction site. The Islamist insurgency, though weakened, continues to simmer. The Mozambican government has reaffirmed ongoing security cooperation with Rwanda as a condition of the restart.

Risks

• Security: Stabilization supported by Rwandan forces, but residual insurgent threats persist. 

• Cost: Potential capex creep from delay-related claims under active negotiation with the government.

Recommendation

• Active Monitoring in the investment pipeline. 

• investor relations and on-the-ground security assessment. 
  

Conclusion 

The restart materially de-risks one of the largest stranded LNG projects globally, moving it back into the investable pipeline. While security and cost risks remain, the combination of advanced project completion, sunk capex, and strategic importance suggests low probability of re-suspension.